The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is expected to further reduce its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by between 250 basis points (bps) and 300bps at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for November 2025.
This projection comes from leading financial research firm, IC Research, following a sharper-than-expected decline in headline inflation in October 2025.
According to IC Research, Ghana’s annual headline inflation has fallen back within the BoG’s medium-term target band for the first time since August 2021. The September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 9.4%, down 210bps from 11.5% in August 2025, and below the firm’s forecasted 190bps decline.
The disinflation trend, IC Research noted, was broad-based with goods inflation, which constitutes 72.5% of the overall CPI basket, easing by 270bps to 11.2%, while services inflation moderated by 60bps to 4.8% year-on-year.
“In our view, this reflects recent foreign exchange shifts to the upside and resultant upticks in domestic energy prices,” IC Research stated. “We view the first single-digit headline inflation in September 2025 as confirmation that the Ghanaian economy has progressed decisively towards price stability after over four years of double-digit price increases.”
The firm, however, cautioned that some upside risks to the inflation outlook remain, but emphasised that the authorities are likely to prioritise consolidating the recent gains in price stability.
SOURCE: norvanreports